By Gemma Alexander
Graphics: Gemma Alexander

Over a period of several months, Gemma Alexander – a statistics guru extraordinaire – has been creating a unique stallion ranking based on the ‘carefulness’ of their offspring. The results – which can be seen in the graphic below and the table on the following page – provide some never-before-calculated insights into a highly sought-after quality that today’s sires are passing to their offspring, shaping sport horses who are and will be competing at the highest levels.

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Methodology

The carefulness score for each stallion was collated by looking at the results of the top 10 offspring of each of the top 50 WBFSH Sire Rankings stallions from 2020; the list of these offspring is also provided by the WBFSH. (http:// www.wbfsh.org/files/WBFSH_Top_50_Jumping_Sires_with_Progeny_-_2020.pdf)
Results were taken from FEI-endorsed classes at a minimum height of 1m50, and consistently applying the following rules:
• Results taken from first round of competition only
• Table C and Accumulator classes not included
• Puissance and Six-Bar classes not included
• Time faults in first round ignored for purposes of carefulness ranking
• Rankings calculated by dividing the number of clear rounds (within parameters above) by the total number of 1m50+ classes entered to generate a % score
The stallion Prince van de Wolfsakker was excluded from the carefulness rankings as only three offspring were presented in the rankings; such a small number of offspring significantly skewed the results for this stallion, making them too unreliable to include.
The stallions were ranked into four categories based on their carefulness ranking:
• Very High (carefulness ranking >40%)
• High (30% to 39.99%)
• Average (20% to 29.99%)
• Low (<20%).

Results

Topping the carefulness ranking is Cornet Obolensky (Clinton x Heartbreaker), coming in at just under 50% with a massive 48.39%. This means that his top 10 offspring produced a clear first showjumping round 48.39% of the time when competing in an FEI class at 1m50 or higher.
Coming in a very close second in the upcoming sire Eldorado van de Zeshoek (Clinton x Toulon) at 48.21%. Interestingly, Toulon is by Heartbreaker; the classic cross of Clinton x Heartbreaker not only produces results, it also (unsurprisingly) breeds carefulness!.. To read the complete article you need to be a subscriber

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